For nearly five decades, Gallup has been conducting surveys to measure Americans’ views on abortion. The organization’s reputation, longevity, and diverse range of questions make it a valuable resource for examining public opinion on this issue.
The latest survey, conducted in May and released on Wednesday, reveals that Americans are less supportive of the right to abortion now than they were after the Dobbs leak in May 2022, but more supportive than they had been in the years leading up to Dobbs.
In 2021, pro-choice Americans outnumbered pro-life Americans by a two-point margin (49% to 47%). However, immediately after the Dobbs leak, the margin increased to a 16-point advantage for the pro-choice side (55% to 39%). Now, one year later, that advantage has been cut in half to an eight-point margin (52% pro-choice to 44% pro-life).
What do these labels mean in terms of abortion policy? When Gallup conducted its survey after the Dobbs leak, it found a significant increase in support for the legality of abortion. That month, 53% of Americans said abortion should be legal under any or most circumstances, while 45% said it should be legal in only a few or illegal in all circumstances — numbers that had essentially flipped from 2021. However, the latest survey shows that “the country is now evenly split between those favoring expansive versus restrictive access to abortion.” A slight plurality (49% to 47%) says abortion should be legal in only a few or no circumstances.
A majority of Democratic voters now say abortion should be legal under any circumstances, a ten-point jump from 2021. Back in 2010, during Barack Obama’s first term, only 33% of Democrats said abortion should be legal under any circumstances.
Gallup has consistently found a divide in Americans’ views on the legality of abortion by trimester of pregnancy: They say it should be legal in the first three months of pregnancy and illegal in the last six months. The latest survey shows that 69% of respondents say it should be legal in the first trimester — two points higher than last year. However, by a 55% to 37% margin, Americans say abortion should be illegal in the second trimester, which starts at the 13th week of pregnancy, and only 22% say abortion should be legal in the last three months of pregnancy. This finding is particularly relevant to the national debate among elected Republicans who say there should be a federal limit on elective abortion at 15 weeks of pregnancy and those who say the federal government should have no role.
While there is a significant divide in public opinion on abortion by trimester, the inclusion of exceptions in poll questions may impact results. For instance, when Gallup asked voters if they favored a law that would ban abortions after a fetal heartbeat can be detected, usually around the sixth week of pregnancy, without mentioning any exceptions, 37% said they favored such a law, while 59% opposed it. In contrast, a May 2022 Fox News poll asked voters if they favored a law that would ban abortion after 6 weeks of pregnancy, except in the case of a medical emergency, and found that 50% favored such a law, while 46% opposed it.
However, issue-polling is often complex and only provides a glimpse into how voters think, not necessarily how they will act. In 2022, pro-life ballot measures all failed, while pro-life governors who signed heartbeat bills or laws generally protecting life at conception fared well, often running far ahead of Republican Senate candidates (see Georgia and Ohio), and Republican House candidates won the popular vote by three percentage points. These results suggest that abortion is just one of many issues motivating voters, and Gallup’s polling continues to show that those motivations are more nuanced than much of the media would have you believe.
