Less than 72 hours have passed since the federal indictment against former President Donald Trump was unsealed, charging him with mishandling classified documents and misleading investigators. Pollsters have since surveyed the Republican electorate, revealing that the majority of GOP voters have not reconsidered their support for Trump. According to a CBS News/YouGov poll, 76% of GOP primary voters dismissed the indictment as “politically motivated.” While 80% of all adults surveyed believed Trump’s careless handling of classified materials posed a “national security risk,” only 38% of Republican voters agreed. Furthermore, 61% of GOP voters stated that the indictment would not affect their views on Trump, and 80% believed that Trump should still be able to serve in the White House if convicted. An ABC News/Ipsos poll yielded similar results, with only 38% of self-identified Republicans considering the charges against Trump as “serious.”
The GOP’s critics have expressed outrage at the continued support for Trump despite the gravity of the allegations he faces. However, recent history indicates that Republican voters’ support for Trump is not conditional, and time alone will not be enough to sway the GOP-primary electorate. Republican officials and right-leaning media elites must first press the case made against Trump in the indictment for it to have any significant impact.
There is precedent for attitudinal shifts among Republican voters on divisive issues such as immigration, American intervention in Syria, and U.S. support for Ukraine. Republican voters’ views are not static and can change depending on the right inputs. Therefore, the real question is what Trump’s rivals for the 2024 nomination will do. If they press the case against him, they may stand a chance of winning voters away from his side. However, if they take the path of least resistance and dismiss the significance of the DOJ’s indictment, Trump’s odds of being the Republican nominee in 2024 will remain high.
